UPDATE ON Projections On the Number of Coronavirus (COVID-19) Cases Within the United States – Part 5 of a Series

First, some good news. The total number of deaths is LOWER than my projections from March 2020 of a doubling of cases every three days. So it looks like those projections were too high. Now, the bad news, is that with about 40K deaths in the USA, at the moment, the actual amounts are still running higher than my earlier projections with a doubling a cases every four days. (That set of projections had number of deaths at 33K for 04/20/2020 so with about 40K in deaths as of 04/19 we are way above my earlier projection.) Hopefully the trend will continue to, at least, slow down, and eventually start to drop below those projections, and then things will look like it is improving.

In any case, I am expecting that any wide scale reopening of business and work to not happen until June 2020/July 2020; and even then will still have some parts that will take a long time to recover.

Any one that can work remote may find themselves in that role for a number of months, since anyone that can be kept off site lessens the number of people in contact or risk of COVID-19 spreading to; and it also helps people that have to be on site to do work since there will be fewer people in a facility to risk being infected or spreading an infection from.

Good Luck and Take Care,

Louis J. Desy Jr.

Sunday, April 19, 2020 6pm

LouisDesyjr@gmail.com

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UPDATE ON Projections On the Number of Coronavirus (COVID-19) Cases Within the United States – Part 4 of a Series

Looking at the official numbers being reported, it looks like today or yesterday, for the first time, the official numbers are finally starting to come in at below what I had projected around March 15, 2020. From my last set of projections I had 04/08/ 2020 at 830K cases with 16,609 deaths. For 04/11/2020 I projected 1.6 million cases and 33K deaths. According to the official reported numbers at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ for April 10, 2020 GMT, the United States is at 486K cases and 16,697 deaths, so it looks like things are starting to ‘slow down’ as far as the rate of increase for the outbreak, which is good, or at least better then my March 15 projection. Hopefully over the next few weeks the rate of increase will slow and then the number of cases will start to ‘drop off’. In some countries there are signs that maybe the end of the outbreak is starting; like South Korea.

Good Luck and Take Care,

Louis J. Desy Jr.

April 09, 2020

LouisDesyjr@gmail.com

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