Why I Will Never Retire

A lot of people, and myself included, hope, dream and plan to retire someday; when they will be able to no longer work a full time job and just ‘enjoy life’. For years I had done the same thing, but have recently started to realize that I will never retire because to do so would be a great loss of experience from the workforce, the world and could even be considered irresponsible when there are so many things that need to be done in world. While there may come a day for many of us that it may be impossible to continue to work, where one’s health declines to the point where they are simply not able to work anymore. Most of us should be able to continue to work and contribute to the world for years, if not decades, into our retirement ages.

There are lots of things to do in the world and lots of things that need to be fixed. While no one person can do or fix anything, each of us in our own way can try to do what we can to improve the overall condition of the world and to simply retire from the world would be irresponsible.

While in recent years there have been large strides made in improving conditions in the world overall, there is still a long way to go until everyone on the planet can have a reasonable standard of living. While some people may define that as something like a middle class life style like that in the United States, I do not think that is the right way to measure such an objective. In many part of the world, things like everyone having a car may not be necessary. As an example, if someone lives in a village where most things are within walking distance, why would they need a car? Having a car would just add an extra layer of expenses and work needed to maintain something that was not needed.

So how would I define when we know an area has reached on ‘ok’ level and what we should be trying for on a global level?

What Everyone Should Be Working Towards In The World

1: People are able to work and support themselves from their weekly and monthly income. Debt is only needed or used for long term capital purchases that provide a net positive present value when incurred. Example: Mortgage on a house, as time goes on, the value of the house goes up and the mortgage goes down, resulting in a fully paid off asset at the end of great value.

2: Health care is available to take care of any health problems and to prevent health problems with annual checkups, vaccinations, eye screenings and dental care.

3: No threats from wars or other violence.

4: Ability to move freely to where one wishes.

5: Able to save money each month based on their income. Monthly expense are lower than month income, resulting in savings that can be used as a reserve for emergencies and large savings serve as capital to invest in new projects.

6: No one needs government aid or assistance to survive.

7: Projects and businesses are able to provide a real rate of return on investments, which in turn results in a demand for labor so people are able to earn a living and paid a ‘living wage’.

8: Food and shelter needs are able to be meet from monthly income and are safe.

9: Education is available to everyone through the high school level. College or trade school level is affordable to people that have the ability to do well in those areas, but just because someone does not go into a trade or go to college does not mean they are somehow shut out of higher levels of income or destitute because work is available for everyone.

As time goes on, I expect I will make changes to this list plus come up with some kind of name to give it, but at least this is my first attempt at such a list of what people in the world should be working towards.

Good Luck and Take Care,

Louis J. Desy Jr.
LouisDesyJr@gmail.com
Sunday, September 16, 2018

The Nomination of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court

I have had the good fortune to be able to listen to some of the hearings the last several days on the XM radio in my car, some of the hearings live. From what I hear and can tell, it looks like Kavanaugh will be approved within a few weeks and his nomination confirmed by the full Senate prior to the mid term elections.

While some of his detractors may have some valid points or concern, I think that the Democrat party, of which I am a member, is spending a lot of political capital on a fight that they can not win and would not expect them to win for several reasons.

1: Instead of saying why Kavanaugh should not be confirmed, no one has said who should be confirmed. I think that a better tactic than attacking every possible angle with Kavanaugh would have been to find or propose someone else that would be at least equal or more capable as a Supreme Court judge. Throughout the entire process, no one seems to have proposed anyone else as a nominee for the court. If someone else was proposed, and that person was more capable, then stopping Kavanaugh might be possible; but as it is now, it is highly unlikely.

2: Complaints about ‘not all of the documents have been released’. Opponents have been complaining that all kinds of documents were not released, but most, if not all, of those documents were work Kavanaugh did for an administration. As such, they would be privileged and can’t be released unless the administration agreed to waive privilege. While some have questioned such an executive privilege, it would seem to me that any legal work Kavanaugh did as part of an administration would be like that of an attorney with his client or as an employee of the executive branch covered by executive privilege. As such, it is not up to Kavanaugh as to whether or not to release the documents, it is up to the administration. While the administration can waive the privilege, and there is precedent that Regan did for a nominee, I can’t see anyone doing that in the current hostile political climate. In one part of the hearings I believe it was mentioned that something like six or seven million documents have been released so far. Just exactly what does anyone think are going to be in any additional documents? Kavanaugh has worked and published for years plus even clerked for judges so there is a more than ample body of work to examine by the committee.

3: Kavanaugh is a ‘boy scout’. If you have the time, I would recommend you watch the nomination hearing for when Kavanuagh was up for the DC Circuit.

MAY 9, 2006 Judicial Nomination Hearing

While I did not get to watch the whole thing, it was, what one can only describe, as a beautiful performance. He already at that point in 2006 had a long list of achievements and his wife and relatives were present in the audience, which he made reference to. Kavanaugh has had an exemplarily background and decades of experience that shows he is fully qualified to serve. This constant trying to slow down the process only makes the party look ineffective and even petty with the constant motions trying to delay the process for no good reason.

4: Last minute attempt to say there is something in Kavanaugh’s background and the process should be stopped.

Kavanaugh “Categorically And Unequivocally” Denies Sexual Misconduct Claim; White House Backs

I am of course, referring to the allegation by Senator Feinstein saying that there was someone from back in High School that Kavanaugh had acted improperly with. Feinstein refused to provide details and refused to bring forth the accuser. This, of course, has now all blown up on the Democrat party since one is to believe that throughout these years, and the prior nomination process, no one ever thought to say or report anything. But now that Kavanaugh is within weeks of being confirmed to the Supreme court, now all of a sudden someone decides to ‘report’ an incident to Senator Feinstein. The senator refuses to give any details all the while claims the process should not go forward until ‘all’ of the documents are presented to the committee. Even worse for the Democrat party, a statement from 65 women who went to school with Kavanaugh now state that they knew him and never knew or heard of him ever doing anything improper.

65 women of bipartisan backgrounds who knew Judge Kavanaugh in high school:

Quote from the letter by the 65 women to the committee:
“We are women who have known Brett Kavanaugh for more than 35 years and knew him while he attended high school between 1979 and 1983. For the entire time we have known Brett Kavanaugh, he has behaved honorably and treated women with respect. We strongly believe it is important to convey this information to the Committee at this time.”

While I can understand the ‘politics’ of trying a routine like this by a party, this is a beyond stupid thing to have tried. Senator Fienstein and her cohorts trying to stop the nomination now have to disclose the identity of the woman making the charge, otherwise it will look like they are at best, completely wrong, and at worst, out and out right lying to stop the nomination.

If this is the best my party, Democrat, can do at this date, it would be best for all if they would just simply stop what they are doing and let the nomination go through. At this rate I would not be surprised if this kind of behavior starts to cost the party seats in the upcoming mid term election and even result in a net loss of seats to the Democrats.

Louis J. Desy Jr.
Friday, September 14, 2018

Does the Muller investigation have anything to report yet? If yes, what is Muller waiting for? If no, then why not issue a report as soon as possible?

In recent days there has been speculation that the Muller investigation is going to release something of ‘great importance’ but not specified as to what that would be.

Chuck Todd: I wouldn’t miss work tomorrow

One interesting question is how and why does Chuck Todd know anything that the public would not know? Is someone leaking information to Chuck Todd? If yes, isn’t that illegal?

Again, isn’t the special counsel supposed to be trying to complete their investigation and issue a report as soon as possible to the public?

Some commentators are starting to claim that the report would not or should not be released until after the mid term elections for fear that the results of the report would unduly influence the mid term elections. The only problem is that if there is something in the report that WOULD influence the elections shouldn’t the report be released BEFORE the midterm elections so people could act on the information? Doesn’t the public have a right to be informed of facts and information that would influence their voting in an election instead of finding out important facts until it was too late to do anything until the next election in 2018?

What is going on with the investigation and why is it taking so long for anything to be reported from the investigation? If there is nothing to report, why is money being spent on what seems to becoming an endless investigation into nothing? If there IS something to report, when is anyone planning on ever finishing the investigation so action can be taken? If there is something to report, what is the plan, to wait until the end of the second term for the administration before anything is done?

At the current rate things are proceeding everyone will be gone from old age before anything is done!

This is NOT how a competent investigation is supposed to proceed. As of May 31, 2018 the cost of the Muller investigation was $16.7 million.

Mueller’s investigation cost $16.7 million in just under a year, new documents show

Is running endless investigations the new paradigm for make work or no show jobs for Washington insiders? How can so much money have been spent with little to nothing to show for it and no report issued? How much money and time does Muller thinks he is going to need to spend ‘before he can issue a report’? Is this how Muller ran investigations when he was at the FBI? Is the reason why it seems that criminals never get caught or go to jail for anything is because the FBI is simply unable to do the job they were created to do or somehow being prevented in doing their job by people at the upper levels of the organization?

On the Muller investigation, in short:

What is going on?
Why does no one seem to be able to get anything done?
Why does no one seem to be able to tell what is being accomplished with all this money being spent?
When, if ever, do they plan on finishing the investigation?
How is it possible that things are being allowed to be run like this?

Louis J. Desy Jr.
Friday, August 31, 2018

Did Trump Collude with Russian in the 2016 Election? Are the mid term elections effecting the pace of the investigations? Part 2 of many

One idea that occurs to me and others, it is POSSIBLE that if there is nothing to the investigations there could be a motive to make sure none of the investigations are completed prior to the mid term elections. This would be especially true if there is nothing to the investigations; i.e. there was no collusion by Trump with Russia to winning the 2016 election but no one wants this confirmed by the completion of any investigation prior to the mid term elections.

My thinking and reasons for this are as follows:

1: IF there was collusion by President Trump and/or members of his campaign, then it would be a great benefit to the people apparently in control of a number of ‘the levers of power’ within the government to finish the investigations as fast as possible and present their proof to the public. Assuming that real concrete evidence could be presented, it would be a great benefit to present such evidence in public, contribute to the Democrat party winning seats in Congress in the coming mid term elections, and maybe even start the process of impeachment of members of the Trump administration or even President Trump himself. The fact that this does not seem to be happening after almost two years seems to be an indicator to me that there is nothing to the investigations and there was no collusion.

2: If there was NO collusion, then it may be in the best interest of the people conducting the investigations, and others that could benefit from an outcome showing collusion, to have the investigations go as slow as possible and maybe even never finish. The thinking here along such a line of thinking is that so much time and money has been spent that anyone involved in working on the investigations would be in ‘BIG’ trouble for taking so long to arrive at the conclusion that there was nothing to investigate. Even worse, the possibility that the investigations were kept going could be to throw dispersions on the administration because the investigations were ongoing. (i.e. Such thinking along these lines would be, there must have been collusion otherwise why would the investigations still be going on?) The problem with such an approach, if true, is that even the most ardent believer in the ‘Trump and Russia colluded’ story is that after 3 or 4 years of the investigations going on these people would start to doubt what they were being told or at least start to wonder why more competent people were not put in place that could finish the investigations.

3: While it is possible to prove something that does exist, it is somewhat hard to prove something that does NOT exist. To me, it seems that is one of the reasons our country has enshrined in law in the United States that guilt must be proven by the government, not one’s innocence by the individual when accused. More correctly, it is really the Presumption of Innocence where one must be proved guilty, not that they are not guilty.

Presumption of innocence:

“The presumption of innocence is the principle that one is considered innocent unless proven guilty.”

• “Although the Constitution of the United States does not cite it explicitly, presumption of innocence is widely held to follow from the 5th, 6th, and 14th amendments. The case ofCoffin v. United States (1895) established the presumption of innocence of persons accused of crimes. See also In re Winship.”

We have this right in the United States in order to ensure that an innocent person is not unjustly accused and suffers from the process of being accused.

Blackstone’s formulation – government must prove guilt

In criminal law, Blackstone’s formulation (also known as Blackstone’s ratio or the Blackstone ratio) is the principle that:

“It is better that ten guilty persons escape than that one innocent suffer”,

Blackstone was talking about English law but the same principal has carried over to the United States where we would rather risk guilty people going free if it meant that we did not have an innocent person suffer for crimes they were not guilty of.

For these reasons, I fear that there are some very good reasons for the investigations about alleged collusion between Trump and his election campaign with Russia, to be kept going because it is an election year and would hurt the out of power party if the investigations ended now.

Hopefully, whatever the outcome, all of the investigations will be completed as soon as possible and definitive reports made to the public as to what happened and what was going on all this time.

Louis J. Desy Jr.
Wednesday, August 29, 2018

Did Trump Collude with Russian in the 2016 Election? Part 1 of many

A question that seems to have been dragging on for months is whether or not President Trump colluded with Russia to win the 2016 Presidential election? While there has been all kinds of reports, speculation and various reports in the media from various sources; there appears to be nothing conclusive as to what was going, who was responsible and if anyone is guilty of a crime or not. It is now almost two years since the election and even with the release of some ‘official reports’, nothing seems to be clear as to what is and was going on. If a crime was committed, then it needs to be brought before a court and the people responsible held to account for their actions. If there was no crime, then an official account and report needs to be made to the public so people can have faith in the administration, its elected officials and not worry that a foreign power has or had undue influence over the US government and the country. After more than two years of investigations going on, it should be possible to get such a report done and issued. If the people running the investigations can’t or won’t make a report, then they need to replaced with people who can issue such a report in a timely manner or explain what else they need to investigate before such a report would be possible and to provide updates on their progress on being able to issue such a report.

Along the way, there seems to be a number of questions that should or need to answered plus other things that have occurred to me as this process as gone on since the election in 2016.

1: If Trump was colluding with the Russians to get elected, wouldn’t Jeff Sessions, now Attorney General (AG), have NOT recuse himself from the Department of Justice (DOJ) investigations and instead stopped any and all investigations into the issue? Jeff Sessions recused himself early in the process from all investigations in the matter. It seems that if he was somehow involved that instead of recusing himself from the investigations, that he would instead have done everything possible to stop any inquiries as soon as he was confirmed as AG.

2: Just because there may have been some Russian interference with the election, it does NOT necessarily mean that Trump colluded with Russians to win the election. If Russia did do or try to do something to influence the election, it does not mean that Trump or anyone working with his campaign had any idea what was going on or involved with it.

3: WHAT exactly was the Russian influence in the election of 2016? So far no one seems to be able to willing to tell the public EXACTLY what the Russian influence is or was. As best as I can tell, the Russian influence was some FaceBook ads of $100,000 run AFTER the election and did not necessarily all be in support of Trump. It also seems unbelievable that someone spending $100,000 in ads could change the outcome of an election when the total campaign spending for the Presidential and Congressional elections in 2016 was something on the order of $6.5 billion with $2.4 billion spent in the presidential elections, according to Opensecrets.org. I originally thought the whole presidential campaign spending was ‘only’ $300 million. How could only $100,000 in FaceBook ads change the outcome of an election? What or how could anyone alter an outcome with such a small amount of money?

4: Was there anyone on the Trump staff part of any investigation? One of the stories that seems to be making the rounds is that the then administration, under President Obama, had one or more people working as part of the Trump staff working on an investigation or even working to do some kind of ‘counter intelligence operation’ to prevent the Russians from influencing the Trump staff or Trump himself. If this is so, where is the results of that work? Why does no one seem to be clear on what, if anything, such work found? If Russia somehow was colluding or did gain influence over some of Trump’s staff, did anyone warn or notify Trump so he could deal with the problem? If the problem was so bad that Russia did have major influence over the staff, and in effect had co opted one of the staff of one of the major candidates for President, why didn’t the Obama administration tell the public or do something? i.e. Why let the election go forward if there really was a major problem? Another aspect is that even if there was someone working with Russia on the staff, it does NOT mean that Trump was part of it.

5: If Trump was working with Russian, why did Trump talk about how Germany is buying gas from Russian and giving them money and making them stronger while the US is helping to defend Russian against Germany as part of NATO?

From July 11, 2018 Washington Post article quoting President Trump at NATO meeting:
Trump’s complaint about Germany and Russia, explained

” “I think it’s very sad when Germany makes a massive oil and gas deal with Russia, where you’re supposed to be guarding against Russia, and Germany goes out and pays billions and billions of dollars a year to Russia,” Trump said. “So we’re protecting Germany. We’re protecting France. We’re protecting all of these countries. And then numerous of the countries go out and make a pipeline deal with Russia, where they’re paying billions of dollars into the coffers of Russia.”
“Germany is totally controlled by Russia,” he later added, “because they will be getting from 60 to 70 percent of their energy from Russia and a new pipeline. And you tell me if that’s appropriate, because I think it’s not, and I think it’s a very bad thing for NATO and I don’t think it should have happened.”

This is not exactly what you would expect a President Trump to be saying on the record and in public if Trump was colluding with Russia. One of the few sources of foreign exchange for Russia is its energy exports. The pipeline deals with Europe is going to be a major source of that revenue. If Trump gets Germany and other European nations to shift some of that spending to US exports, it will cost Russian billions in revenue for years to come.

Louis J. Desy Jr.
Saturday, August 25, 2018

Is the eBook assault on traditional publishing over?

It has been several years since eBooks started roiling the publishing industry and book stores, but it finally looks like that maybe the onslaught from eBooks is over. While a number of indicators are that eBooks, mainly through Amazon and its Kindle reader or program for computer devices, took a large part of the market, it looks like the market may be starting to stabilized for traditional publishers, but at a much lower level of sales.

Ebooks are books that are distributed in an electronic format instead of a print format. There are multiple forms of eBooks, but one of the best well know formats is the Amazon Kindle program where books are downloaded to a special Kindle Reader or a Kindle program on any one of a number of computer devices. Ebooks have been a boom to vendors like Amazon and a great help to writers and authors for a number of reasons which have changed the market for books and publishers.

The first transformation of the publishing industry is that eBooks allowed anyone to write and publish their own book with little to no costs. Anyone can write an eBook with a word processing program, like Microsoft Word, and when done, format and upload it to a vendor like the Amazon Kindle KDP Select program for publication. A buyer can then buy either a print copy of the work or an electronic eBook version of the work. One of the big advantages of eBook over print is that there is no large cost to do a print run. Prior to eBooks, if someone wanted to get a book into print that no publisher was interested in, it would be up to them to find someone with a printing press, usually a ‘vanity press’, and pay them the few thousand that it would cost to do a print run, usually of about 1,000 books. Typically, those books would sit mostly unsold forever since there was no marketing or promotions or ability to get the book into any of the sales channels. People who went the vanity press route to get their work published would usually sell a few copies, give away as many as possible to the people they knew, and then get stuck with boxes sitting in storage in their garages and basements forever.

With eBooks, there are none of the problems of how little or how many copies a work sells. If only one copy sells or one million copies sell, the Amazon system takes care of it all automatically, downloads are automatic once paid for, print copies are only printed on demand and as ordered.

With Ebooks and programs like Amazon Kindle writers get paid much faster than the old publisher model for paying royalties. Pre eBooks, writers were only paid twice per year and there was a ‘hold back’ amount to cover returns from distributors and book stores. I personally know a person that use to have a book section in his comic book store and his distributor would allow him to return and take credit for books that had been sitting in the store for a decade, with no questions asked! An eBook does not have that problem, Amazon pays authors once per month for any and all amounts earned, no more waiting as long as 18 months to get the royalties for a book that sold a long time ago!

Another advantage for authors is that eBooks typically have a much higher royalty percentage than print copies. The typical royalty percentage for a print copy is about 17.5% of what that publisher sold the book for to a customer, distributor or retail store. The royalty for authors through the Amazon eBook Kindle program is 35% on retail prices of $2.99 and below, or above $9.99. The program pays 70% to the writer on books with a retail price between $2.99 and $9.99. Why would Amazon structure the royalty percentage this way? Apparently, Amazon has determined the most number of units and highest revenue overall is when an eBook is priced around $9.99, especially when the typical print book is around $20 to $30. So Amazon is giving writers an incentive to price their book at $9.99 to get the highest royalty payout. This is an example of how Amazon structures things so their interests and the interests of the authors are aligned in a way that traditional publishers have not been able to do so or not wanted to do so. (I would like to thank and credit J.A. Konrath for his lengthy postings about the publishing industry over the years for this information on how things work in the publishing industry. http://jakonrath.blogspot.com/ )

Ebooks do have one big disadvantage when compared with traditional print publishing, however. The problem is that with the barrier to publishing books having come down, anyone can put out a book. As a result, the market is flooded with terrible books, many of which never sell anything. As an example of how tilted the market is, I put out a book in August 2012 about taking and passing the bar exam; How To Pass the Bar Exam by Louis Desy. To date, about 381 copies have either been sold or given away under the Amazon KDP select program as a free promotional or as part of the Amazon program where authors get a cut of a pot of money parceled out to authors if they allow their book to be ‘borrowed’ under a Kindle program. Most of the time there are no sales or one sale of the book, which puts the book at about 1.5 million in ranking. That means 1.5 million book sold more copies than my book. I estimate Amazon has about 2 or 3 million titles listed and ranked in their system. That would mean there is at least 500,000 books that sold nothing in the same time period. Sales or borrowing of 2 or 3 copies of my book as put my book as high as 15,000 in ranking; meaning that everything with a higher number had not even sold 2 copies!

Ebooks has had a large effect on book stores, since with the ability to download eBooks, there is no need for a buyer to ever step into a book store again to purchase a book. This has had a devastating effect on retail books stores with a number of store going out of business since the financial crisis and Borders completely liquidating after filing bankruptcy in 2011. Barnes and Nobel has hung on since then, but large parts of the stores are now devoted to non book items, like toys and gifts, and appears to only be able to do well with its college bookstores that are mainly in the textbook business for a captive audience at the college they are part of. Barnes and Nobel did have their own eBook reader product, the Nook, but it has mostly faded away over time and was a constant money loser every quarter due to not being able to compete with the Amazon Kindle.

It can be argued that some of the changes over time were inevitable since the idea and possibility has been around since the 1980s at least. In the early years people made some efforts with computer PDF files but the problem in those was how to prevent copying and get paid for downloads? My friend that I mentioned about his comic book store, was part of an effort in the 1980s to prototype a kind of reader like device, but the hardware was not up to the task, kept overheating, and was too early in time for a successful device being made at that point. Maybe if he and his group had made their attempt in the mid 1990s the hardware would have been up to the task and they would have been successful?

In short, the changes over the years from eBooks have been brutal for book stores and traditional publishers but a boom for Amazon and authors.

Louis J. Desy Jr.
Friday, August 24, 2018