UPDATE ON Projections On the Number of Coronavirus (COVID-19) Cases Within the United States – Part 5 of a Series

First, some good news. The total number of deaths is LOWER than my projections from March 2020 of a doubling of cases every three days. So it looks like those projections were too high. Now, the bad news, is that with about 40K deaths in the USA, at the moment, the actual amounts are still running higher than my earlier projections with a doubling a cases every four days. (That set of projections had number of deaths at 33K for 04/20/2020 so with about 40K in deaths as of 04/19 we are way above my earlier projection.) Hopefully the trend will continue to, at least, slow down, and eventually start to drop below those projections, and then things will look like it is improving.

In any case, I am expecting that any wide scale reopening of business and work to not happen until June 2020/July 2020; and even then will still have some parts that will take a long time to recover.

Any one that can work remote may find themselves in that role for a number of months, since anyone that can be kept off site lessens the number of people in contact or risk of COVID-19 spreading to; and it also helps people that have to be on site to do work since there will be fewer people in a facility to risk being infected or spreading an infection from.

Good Luck and Take Care,

Louis J. Desy Jr.

Sunday, April 19, 2020 6pm


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